Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is still more than a week away, but we’ve been busy scanning all the betting lines for the big game.
Once you get past the silly Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce will-they-won’t-they bet shenanigans, there are other bets more worthy of your time and money.
We have already placed two bets, taking advantage of the early lines that currently appear to be closed.
Super Bowl 58 Best Bets
Spread Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115 FanDuel)
The line for the game opened with the 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite, then fell as low as 1.5 within the first 12 hours on most sports betting sites, before reversing course again to return to the current 2.5-point mark in favor of San Francisco.
We would take the Chiefs at +1.5; We like it even more now that it’s back to its opening spread.
There are some quarterbacks you won’t doubt (or bet on) in big games. A short list: Montana, Aikman, Brady… and Patrick Mahomes.
The 49ers didn’t exactly have an underwhelming performance in the playoffs. They lost to Jordan Love and should have lost their league game to Green Bay. And last Sunday, they needed a second-half rally, fueled by questionable play-calling from Dan Campbell, to beat the Lions in the NFC championship game.
If you’re still doubting Mahomes after what he’s done in these playoffs, starting out as an underdog and finding his way to the Super Bowl (again!), then maybe these two stats will convince you otherwise:
- The Chiefs are 10-1-1 against the spread when the Mahomes-led team opens as an underdog.
- Underdogs in the Super Bowl are 13-7 against the spread over the last 20 seasons.
Bettors didn’t know what to make of Mahomes in his first Super Bowl game against the 49ers four years ago. They opened the game with a pick… Chiefs won by 11.
Who knows, maybe Brock Purdy will add his name to this short list one day, but for now, this is a mismatch we’re betting on. Take Mahomes, the Chiefs, and the scores.
Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey (+450 BetMGM)
We know what you’re thinking: How can McCaffrey win MVP if the Chiefs win the game?
Two things here: The Chiefs don’t have to win the game for our first bet to go through; They just need to hold on tight in one loss. Second, yes, it’s a hedge, and CMC’s chances of taking home the MVP hardware are too good to pass up.
Based on the 2.5 point spread, it’s hard to see McCaffrey not playing a significant role in the 49ers’ anticipated win.
History isn’t necessarily on his side, as he has never won a running back award in the 23 seasons in which the NFL has allowed fans 20 percent of the vote. During that span, 14 played quarterback (60.9%), five played wide receiver (21.8%) and the remaining four played defense (17.4%) – three of them linebackers.
While Mahomes (+125) and Purdy (+220) have better odds, the odds are held by McCaffrey (+450), who has four touchdown passes in the playoffs and 25 touchdowns in 18 games this season.
The Chiefs held the Ravens to 81 yards on Sunday, while Baltimore was forced to pass in the second half after falling behind early.
He scored four goals in the play-offs and had 25 goals in 18 matches.
The Chiefs are coachable; Before the Ravens were held to just 81 yards in the AFC Championship (they were shooting in the second half after falling behind early), Kansas City gave up 180 rushing yards to Buffalo in the divisional round, which more closely reflected how much they surrendered on the field in the regular season.
McCaffrey is a receiver as well as a running back, and being equally good at both gives him two paths to the game’s biggest honor.
Plus, CMC for MVP It has a nice ring.