Betting on the Super Bowl can feel overwhelming even for a seasoned veteran, let alone a better novice.
For example, BetRivers sports betting has a menu of nearly 900 different options for Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
With such a broad offering, I have to think it’s a bit burdensome for sports betting sites to keep track of everything. While oddsmakers have paid close attention to the point spread, adjusting San Francisco from -2.5 to -1.5 and then back to -2.5, we haven’t seen any movement with the total holding steady at 47.5.
Although this lack of action suggests bettors are pretty divided overall, I think it points to the balanced offenses we’ll see from both teams on Sunday.
When I think of balance in general, I think of both teams keeping the game under control with their offensive attacks. And although sports betting sites have made an early splash in publishing their lines, bettors can still find a ton of value in the rapidly evolving prop market.
Here are two players I particularly liked from Sunday’s game.
Super Bowl LVIII Player Accessories
Brock Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards (-112 BetRivers)
After wins over Green Bay and Detroit, Purdy will face a much stronger Kansas City defense in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs can create mayhem in the backfield with a front four that ranked second in Pressure Rate (27.8%) and third in Rush Rate (9.8%) during the regular season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Kansas City also has the fifth-best pass defense according to FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA) metric.
As a result, I suspect Purdy will have less time to make strides in this game and may have to put the ball in at times to escape Kansas City’s rush.
In these high-leverage plays, quarterbacks are more likely to use their legs while at greater risk.
We saw Purdy make at least five tackles in both postseason games, and he rushed for 48 yards against the Lions in the NFC Championship.
The Chiefs ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, which may indicate some correlation with a successful passing offense.
Deebo Samuel 2.5+ offensive attempts (-162) BetRivers)
I’m ready to continue supporting Samuel’s initiatives because I think it has a very good chance of being monetized. Coaches are often known to add new wrinkles to Super Bowl game plans, but Samuel’s involvement in the running game should surprise no one.
The fifth-year pro is the 49ers’ most dynamic offensive player and can be a game-changer on the fly with the ball in his hands. As a result, the 49ers like to give him more touches in these high-leverage games.
If Purdy struggles against the Chiefs in the passing game, another way to get the ball to him is to use Samuel in the backfield.
Explosive plays can break even the best defenses, and that’s what Samuel brings to the table. Samuel has recorded at least three shots in seven of the last eight playoff games.
Had he not been injured early in the game against the Packers, this streak of three or more carries would likely still be active.